Upcoming 2019 El Niño Assault Predicted

The island province we call home, Guimaras, may be in for another “state of calamity.” The National Weather Service of the Philippines, PAGASA, has a dire prediction. “Upcoming 2019 El Niño Assault Predicted.”

 El Niño occurs with the abnormal rise in temperature in the Pacific Ocean. Hence, this results in lower rainfall and prolonged dry spells.

The Manila Times reports the latest Pagasa outlook indicates a 60 to 90 percent chance of El Niño forming in the first and second quarters of the year.

The 2016 El Niño Smackdown

Virtually dried out were local rice fields almost three years ago, March 2016. Consequently, we had another well dug to supplement the one well we had.

While the second well helped out during the 2016 drought, we’ve had plentiful rainfall since the 2016 state of calamity.

our new well in the philippines

Last year, 2018, we only needed to bring one water truck in early May for a cost of 2,500 pesos, 50 US dollars. Needed for our swimming pool, was the extra water. We had water in both of our wells at the time. However, after the water delivery, we had a deluge of rain.

That said, we’ve had to start filling our pool with well water early, a couple of months ago. That doesn’t bode well with the predicted onslaught of another El Niño. 

The state weather agency, however, has yet to see signs of El Niño. According to Pagasa weather forecaster Raymond Ordinario, a drought would first persist for three consecutive months.

The rainfall would be way below normal (60 percent reduction from average), or there would be five consecutive months of below-normal rainfall condition (21 percent to 60 percent reduction from average.)

Thankfully, our two wells presently have sufficient water levels. We haven’t needed to bring in water trucks yet. Hopefully, we won’t have to.

Finally, check out the following chart from PAGASA.

Author: The Kano

POST AUTHOR: "THE KANO" aka "THE CRUSTY OLD EXPAT." Dave DeWall, "The Kano", is the Publisher & Editor-in-Chief of "Philippines Plus" in publication since August 2009. He is also the CEO of Lizard Poop Productions and author of the best-selling guide book "The Philippines Expat Advisor." Dave moved to the Philippines in July 2009 from Central Illinois with his lovely wife of over 18 years, "The Sainted Patient Wife." The couple reside in a rural province in Western Visayas, Guimaras. The small island province is said to have the sweetest mangoes in the world. They do not have any children but are the proud owners of eight active canines, including a Belgian Shepherd called "Killer" "Killer" has bitten five people in the last two years along with one goat and a carabao. "Killer" doesn't like strangers. Or goats. Or carabaos.