The island province we call home, Guimaras, may be in for another “state of calamity.” The National Weather Service of the Philippines, PAGASA, has a dire prediction. “Upcoming 2019 El Niño Assault Predicted.”
El Niño occurs with the abnormal rise in temperature in the Pacific Ocean. Hence, this results in lower rainfall and prolonged dry spells.
The Manila Times reports the latest Pagasa outlook indicates a 60 to 90 percent chance of El Niño forming in the first and second quarters of the year.
The 2016 El Niño Smackdown
Virtually dried out were local rice fields almost three years ago, March 2016. Consequently, we had another well dug to supplement the one well we had.
While the second well helped out during the 2016 drought, we’ve had plentiful rainfall since the 2016 state of calamity.
Last year, 2018, we only needed to bring one water truck in early May for a cost of 2,500 pesos, 50 US dollars. Needed for our swimming pool, was the extra water. We had water in both of our wells at the time. However, after the water delivery, we had a deluge of rain.
That said, we’ve had to start filling our pool with well water early, a couple of months ago. That doesn’t bode well with the predicted onslaught of another El Niño.
The state weather agency, however, has yet to see signs of El Niño. According to Pagasa weather forecaster Raymond Ordinario, a drought would first persist for three consecutive months.
The rainfall would be way below normal (60 percent reduction from average), or there would be five consecutive months of below-normal rainfall condition (21 percent to 60 percent reduction from average.)
Thankfully, our two wells presently have sufficient water levels. We haven’t needed to bring in water trucks yet. Hopefully, we won’t have to.
Finally, check out the following chart from PAGASA.