Could Philippine Peso Plummet to 60 per US Dollar?

With opposition politicians clamoring that “the end is near,” could the Philippine peso plummet to 60 per US Dollar? Why shouldn’t we American expats in the Philippines start to enjoy the generous exchange rate our British and European friends already have?

Decline of the Philippine Peso

When I checked the exchange rates early this afternoon (Sept. 12, 2018) here’s what I discovered:

  • One US Dollar=53.996 Philippine Pesos
  • One Euro=62.571 Philippine Pesos
  • One British Pound=70.242 Philippine Pesos

Basically, the US Dollar hit the 54 to 1 exchange rate today. That’s a 13-year low for the Philippine Peso. The peso has weakened more than 7 percent this year thus far. However, hold on Pilgrims, a recent report at Bloomberg.com revealed the PH peso could be in for greater punishment.

  • Franklin Templeton Investments sees the peso falling past 55 per dollar – a drop of more than 2 percent – and is tactically shorting it.
  • Neuberger Berman believes that steps by the Philippine’s central bank to stop the peso’s decline aren’t enough.

Could Philippine Peso Plummet to 60 per US Dollar?

Rakuten Securities Australia – see worsening US-China trade tensions as a danger, with President Donald Trump preparing another tariff salvo.

“If Trump goes the full 200 yards quickly, then that might potentially send the peso and other emerging markets to new record lows,” said Nick Twidale, Sydney-based chief operating officer at Rakuten.

The Bloomberg article doesn’t claim the Philippine Peso could actually reach an historic low of 60-1 against the US Dollar. However, the above statement from Rakuten Securities “…potentially send the peso… to new record lows” indicates the possibility of such a decline.

With surging inflation in the Philippines and growing political unrest with rumors of a coup to unseat President Duterte, such a scenario is possible.

Factor in rising oil prices, fiscal and account deficits, and broader investor turn against emerging market currencies like the Philippines, a further decline in the Philippine Peso wouldn’t be surprising.

Historically, the Philippine Peso reached an all-time high of 56.34 in October of 2004 and a record low of 37.84 in May of 1999.