Let’s take a journey with Mr. Peabody and Sherman on Peabody’s “WABAC” Time Machine to early 2011. In a post entitled “Wide Range of Predictions for Philippine Peso vs. USD Exchange Rate,” some monetary “experts” were claiming doom and gloom for the U.S. Dollar.
“Shrinking Philippine Peso Vs. US Dollar”
HSBC (Hong Kong) and Shanghai Banking Corp used their crystal ball and proclaimed an exchange rate of PHP 37.50 to $1 in 2011 and PHP 35.50 in 2012. In 2011 the average exchange was 43.30 PHP to 1 USD. In 2012 the average was 42.20, more than a one peso drop but far from the dire 35.50 prediction. As this post goes to press, U.S. Dollar stands at 50.55; thus the topic for today’s post: “Shrinking Philippine Peso Vs. US Dollar.”
Last year at this time, The Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) expected the peso to slide to P50 to the dollar due to higher infrastructure spending and the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates.
Although BPI recently managed to royally screw up their customer’s accounts, their forecast for the USD to PHP was right on target.
Historically, the Philippine Peso reached an all time high of 56.34 in October of 2004 and a record low of 37.84 in May of 1999.
Looking forward, the Trading Economics website predicts the dollar to trade at 51.45 in 12 months time.
55 to 1 Forecast in 2018
In an article posted lasted December at ABS CBN NEWS this prediction was made from UBS Financial Services: “We look for USD PHP (Philippine peso) at 51 in 2017 and 55 in 2018.”
The reason? Policy tightening in the US which is driving funds out of emerging markets like the Philippines.
If you’re an American expat living in the Philippines that 55 to 1 forecast is great news. Otherwise, you probably don’t give a rat’s behind about how the dollar is doing against the peso. Me? I’m happier than a booger in a nose full of snot!
In case, you’re curious, here’s a look at the average USD to PHP exchange rate from 1960 to 2017.